Mark Langner (Nickel Capital) article

Posts: 94 · Vonage Forum Senior Joined: Jun 17, 2006 Posts: 94

As i read the fairly exhaustive article published by Mark Langner from Nickel Capital, I thought to myself "Wow ... This is a pretty detailed and pessimistic outlook for Vonage"

The article didn't leave any topic uncovered. There was no hope. All of the other opinions from the Wall Street analysts (which tend to be around "hold") can be thrown out. Mr. Langner says you need to be short or buy puts. That's it!!

Then I took another look. Why have I never heard of "Nickel Capital" I've worked on the street and I know that any firm that sponsors such an exhaustive research article like this must either have a fairly substantive subscriber list or must have customers who directly or indirectly pay for this research. in either case, all research firms have some public presence. For business purposes, it's a must.

Nickel Capital doesn't exist to provide research .(At least not as a public research company that we can believe). You try it. Google Nickel Capital and see what you get. Also try and Google Mark Langner and see what you get.

This is important, because somebody had to pay for this exhaustive research piece. This was not just a blog that an independent writer decided to post. This is a detailed research piece that had to take days to research and write.

Who paid for this? Who is Nickel Capital? Are they short the stock? Why would a research report sound so "one-sided"? (Most traditional analysts of Vonage don't like the stock, but have a much more balanced approach to its valuation. They fear the risk involved, but recognize that in certain circumstances, the stock could soar).

I don't have the answer to who paid for this article. You can guess as well as anybody.

Be careful when you read research from firms which clearly have a biased objective. Stick to research which is written by trustworthy firms. That doesn't have to be sell side firms. The research written by research boutiques can be great.

Nickel capital is not a boutique. You have never heard of them and you will never hear from them in the future. (Unless another hedge fund decides to short another stock)

Posts: 5 · New Forum Member Joined: Jan 17, 2007 Posts: 5

The article might have been developed by one of the traditional phone companies. Verizon obviously was trying to ruin Vonages ipo with their lawsuit. The timing is too suspicious. By the way does anyone know if they really have a case. My guess is that they filed the suit simply to ruin the ipo.

Anyway its obvious the phone companies are much bigger and are playing the bullies. I would not be suprised if that article was funded by someone like Verizon.

Posts: 17 · Vonage Forum Associate Joined: May 31, 2006 Posts: 17

The timing is perfect. He wrote a negative article and the stock droped (now 5.35). Earning release is next week. Chances are he is paid by individuals ready to pick up huge volumes of stocks for speculative trade. I would not be surprise to se VG rise next week. I am definately contemplating of riding this wave, but then again I could be wrong. What do you all think?