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BigTime
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Posts: 111

PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:15 pm    Post subject: Vonage is on its death bed (analysis) Reply with quote Back to top

OK Vonage investors, you need to consider right now if you want to lose ALL OF YOUR MONEY. Because Vonage is going under, and Jeff Citron, Deutche Bank, & Co. will be very happy to drag you down under with them.

Let's look at the numbers. Motley Fool's article today calculates Vonage's "structual burn rate" of cash. The average for the past three quarters is $98 million. Vonage has Current Assets (649) - Current Liabilities (170) of $479 million. It also has long term debt of $278 million, but it is very unlikely that is ever going to get paid off so we will just ignore it for the moment.

So at current burn rates, Vonage has roughly until the end January before its book value becomes negative, and until late late next year when it will simply go belly up and stiff its long-term-debt holders and shareholders.

But these predictions, as pessimistic as they seem, are assuming everything goes the way they are now. There is good reason to think things will only be getting worse. Here's why:

1. The class action and patent lawsuits: Even if Vonage wins them, will cost millions of dollars to defend. Just in legal bills and compliance with subpeonas will probably run $2 million a quarter.

2. Price war: Vonage has not cut prices in a while, but the Cable companies have, and increasingly are offering Voip as part of bundles. On the other end of the market, SunRocket just got a $35 million capital infusion, and cut its price for a little while to $99/year for unlimited service.

Why exactly pay $320+ a year for Vonage when almost identical service is available for $99?

3. Decelleration of growth: Last quarter was the first quarter that subscriber growth slowed down. Market share also went down. On the other hand the Telcos and CableCos are doing great Voip business.
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skin06
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Joined: Aug 27, 2006
Posts: 120
Location: Cheshire, UK

PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:33 am    Post subject: $320 year?? Reply with quote Back to top

OMG, the Americans are paying an awful lot for their Vonage Service......In the UK I pay £7.99/mo incl all Tax (No regulatory fees yet!) (Roughly $14.80/mo) for unlimited UK/Ireland calls, that amounts to £95.88 per year (Roughly $177.60) providing I dont make any charge calls e.g Premium, Cellphone) I save a lot.
Maybe its worth looking at your $99 services, whoever they may be.
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