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Post new topic   Reply to topic  Vonage® VoIP Forum - Vonage News, Reviews And Discussion » Vonage Stock
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BigTime
Vonage Forum Senior
Vonage Forum Senior


Joined: Jun 15, 2006
Posts: 111

PostPosted: Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:46 pm    Post subject: How To Short Vonage Reply with quote Back to top

The easist way to to just sell the stock short. Problem is, this is such an obvious investment that it is very hard to get shares to short. And once Vonage falls below 5, you will not be allowed to short by law, though you can keep whatever short sales you've already made.

I use E-Trade, and they have never had any shares to short when I've checked. I have heard that ameritrade sometimes does.

Therefore, if you want to profit from Vonage's fall, you probably need to use invest in Vonage options. Specifically you need to buy Vonage puts.

If you have never invested in options before, you have to fill out a form of about three pages to see if you are suitable and qualified to invest in options. Call your broker (I suggest calling even if you use an online broker) and have them walk you through this process so you can get it down as quickly as possible. It should take about a week before you are approved for options trading.

I suggest buying the $12.5 and $15 puts if you want a less aggressive investment, and the $5 and $7.5 puts if you want to be aggressive.

How much money could you make? If you buy the $7.5 put for January, now selling for about $2.10, and the stock goes to $2 a share, then the value of the put will increase to $5.5. In other words you will more than double your money.

The most speculative are the $5 puts. If Vonage drops to $1, then buyers of the $5 puts today will see their put going up in value from 90 cents to $4.00. Their money will more than quadruple.

If the stock stays above 5, however, these puts will expire with no value.

If you have lost money so far from Vonage's implosion, this is a good way to maybe make it back.
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Edge
Vonage Forum Senior
Vonage Forum Senior


Joined: Jun 17, 2006
Posts: 94

PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2006 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Your example of shorting stock is ignorant. You do not fully understand how the securities business works. Every short of a stock must involve the borrowing of the physical security. Most retail customers do not have the ability to borrow stock and especially a stock that is "special" (in short supply to borrow).

Retail clients can buy puts. This however can be risky because you can lose your entire premium if the direction of the stock doesn't go in the direction that you want.
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xmeyer
Vonage Forum Associate
Vonage Forum Associate


Joined: May 31, 2006
Posts: 20

PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2006 7:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Edge wrote:
Your example of shorting stock is ignorant. You do not fully understand how the securities business works. Every short of a stock must involve the borrowing of the physical security. Most retail customers do not have the ability to borrow stock and especially a stock that is "special" (in short supply to borrow).

Retail clients can buy puts. This however can be risky because you can lose your entire premium if the direction of the stock doesn't go in the direction that you want.


Geeze, you've really got a thing for BigTime! Take a minute to
read what he said. His opening several sentences are all about
the difficulty of shorting a stock in short (heh,heh) supply. Hence
the suggestion to use puts. And by the way, puts are not risky,
at least as compared to shorting. When you short a stock your
potential for loss is unlimited. When you buy puts your loss is
limited to their cost. This, of course, is the beauty of options
trading: you can know in advance at least one outcome of
the position and sometimes all outcomes (selling covered calls,
for instance). The word "ignorant" is better applied to the
condition you are in about outcomes when you hold a straight-
forward long or short position.
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Edge
Vonage Forum Senior
Vonage Forum Senior


Joined: Jun 17, 2006
Posts: 94

PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2006 8:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

I chose the word "ignorant' carefully and I think it applies.

I am not saying that the desire to want to be short is ignorant. I'm saying that his knowledge of the actual mechanics of being short is very limited.

The only way to "short' a stock is to borrow it to make delivery or to "fail to deliver". Period.

I actually suggest using puts if you want a short position. I also acknowledge the risk of using puts also.

Big Time may be smart for betting against Vonage. Time will tell. But when I catch him making ignorant statements about the mechanics of the stock market, I will correct him.

I challenge anybody to "correct" what I am saying.
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pcapelli
New Forum Member
New Forum Member


Joined: Jan 30, 2005
Posts: 7

PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2006 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Edge wrote:
I challenge anybody to "correct" what I am saying.


You mean other than in the *first line* of his message, where he notes that it is hard to find shares of Vonage to short?
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Edge
Vonage Forum Senior
Vonage Forum Senior


Joined: Jun 17, 2006
Posts: 94

PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2006 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

I correct myself. Good catch. I really meant to say "difficult to find shares to borrow".
It is easy to find people that want to short.

At these price levels, you have to wonder why doesn't management show themselves and at least announce a stock buyback. After all they are still flush with the cash from the IPO.
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BigTime
Vonage Forum Senior
Vonage Forum Senior


Joined: Jun 15, 2006
Posts: 111

PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2006 2:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Edge, it is you who do not understand how shorting works. You say there is a need to borrow a "physical securitiy." That is absurd. "Physical securities" are stock certificates. E-trade doesn't fed-ex around stock certificates every time one of its customers wants to short a stock. There is nothing physical about it at all, everything is done electronically by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corportion (DTCC).

Anyway, this is not an issue worth debating futher because it is irrelevant to the individual investor.

I would enjoy debating someone with some intelligent contributions to make, especially someone who would critique my analysis of Vonage's precarious financial position, but unfortunately all you have done is make vague and unsupported statements and unfounded insults against me.

In my posts I cite news articicles, technology bloggers, and comment on the details of Vonage's financial statements as providing to the SEC, and I try to make concrete suggestions. I hope you can do the same. A good start would be to review Vonage's prospectus, which I linked to in another post, and which is our only hard source of information about Vonage's financial situation.
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Edge
Vonage Forum Senior
Vonage Forum Senior


Joined: Jun 17, 2006
Posts: 94

PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2006 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Let's get back to basics.

When you sell a stock, on settlement date you must deliver a security. You can wire the security in DTC, you can deliver the physical security. You must deliver the security. If you don't then the trade will fail.

If you own the security, then you deliver your security on settlement date. If you don't own the security, then you must borrow the security. If you can't borrow the security, then the trade will fail.

You can only borrow the security from people who own and have the security. Fully paid owners of the security do not have to lend their security out.

If there are not enough securities available to borrow. Then there will be fails. The remedy for a fail can have the buyer purchase the security in the open market and charge the initial seller for any costs.
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