There really isn't that much to talk about. Can a wildly unprofitable company beset on all sides by lawsuits, with an unproven business plan and a management team that makes the Enron team look honest, somehow make a lot of money in the most competitive industry on the planet?
I say no, others say yes. So far the market has been agreeing with me.
The whole "let's spend tons of money on advertising now and worry about profits later" thing they are doing has repeatedly failed. Maybe VG will be the exception. I doubt it.
The true test will not be by how much the stock price goes down in the short run due to short selling.
The true test will be what happens to the stock price if they get to the magical 5MM customers in 3 years.
Saying that they are currently unprofitable is not new news. They have planned to be unprofitable at this stage. Their goal currently is not to somehow shift to profitability. Their goal is to gain customers.
Don't be short when management discloses how customer subscriptions are growing.
If customer subscriptions grow more than expected, then buy If customer subscriptions grow less than expected, then sell
Their goal currently is not to somehow shift to profitability. Their goal is to gain customers.
Just get really big and go bust? That doesn't sound like a management plan to me!
At some point you have to be profitable. If the goal is not currently to become profitable, then they may as well pack up shop and go home now. No-one is going to buy a huge unprofitable business any more than they would buy a medium-sized unprofitable business.
Growth of customers is meaningless without a means to extract a profit from them. If the goal is to aquire customers, at some point in the management plan there must be a goal to get a profit out of that customer base.
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