Vonage Founder Stands To Profit Despite IPO Flop

Posts: 13 · Vonage Forum Associate Joined: Jan 17, 2006 Posts: 13

Vonage Founder Stands To Profit Despite IPO Flop

By Ari Levy and Miles Weiss
Bloomberg News
Thursday, June 8, 2006; Page D06

Vonage Holdings Corp. chairman and founder Jeffrey Citron has a paper profit of almost a half-billion dollars -- six times his initial investment in the company -- from shares he bought before the company's initial public offering.

Meanwhile, the value of stock held by new shareholders has fallen 29 percent since the company's IPO on May 23.

Citron, 35, who started the Internet phone company in 2001, invested $81.5 million before Vonage's IPO, allowing him to acquire 47.67 million common shares at an average of $1.71 each, according to documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Excluding options, his stake is valued at $571.5 million, based on yesterday's closing price of $11.99 a share. Citron and early investors are eligible to sell stock Nov. 21, 180 days after the IPO.

Remainder at:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/07/AR2006060702229.html

Posts: 5 · New Forum Member Joined: May 04, 2006 Posts: 5

Just did a bit of number crunching , some interesting figures. Based on the previous post where Jeffrey Citron hold 47.5 Million shares:

At IPO of $17 he had a paper value of $807,500,000.00

Today at $7.03 he has a paper value of $333,925,000.00

every penny the stock drops he loses $475,000.00

so far since the IPO he has dropped $473,575,000.00

Given that he cannot sell his stock until Nov 21st, 2006 I would think his days are not going so well.

Posts: 111 · Vonage Forum Senior Joined: Jun 15, 2006 Posts: 111

He paid less than a buck a share. As soon as he is able I bet he will start selling and drag the stock down even more.

Posts: 66 · Full Forum Member Joined: May 25, 2006 Posts: 66

Quote:

cannot sell his stock until Nov 21st, 2006

That's why the IPO was such a huge gamble for the investors. It is proving to not be the exit they were looking for.

Mind you, I guess if it doesn't sink below $1.71 he'll at least get his money back. I think it's unlikely it'll go below $2. I'm sure the market would buy at $2 or maybe $3 and await a buy out. I would. High risk sure, but probably worth a punt at that price.

Posts: 111 · Vonage Forum Senior Joined: Jun 15, 2006 Posts: 111

Actually I think the company has negative value. That is actually not saying much, the company was in the hole 61 million on March 31st.

Now it has its IPO cash, but it is spending it down like a drunken sailor, and their is no way to know much much liability it faces with the endless lawsuits against it.

I suppose If it went below $1 tomorrow someone might bite, but $3 a share is still paying $467 million for a company that has done nothing but train money out of everyone who has invested in it.

The status of the convertible notes is somewhat unclear to me. They might not be included in the market cap, but if VG were taken over they would have to be converted to shares. That means the price of Vonage @3 might be more like $550 million. Even more unreasonable.

Posts: 1125 · Posted: Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:18 pm Post subject:

BigTime wrote:

but it is spending it down like a drunken sailor

I can attest to that analogy being totally correct. Very Happy

Posts: 66 · Full Forum Member Joined: May 25, 2006 Posts: 66

Quote:

$467 million for a company that has done nothing but train money out of everyone who has invested in it.

I think even at $550 million it's not actually too bad a deal for the right buyer. That's, say, $5 per lead on a broadband customer. I'd say that's about right? There'd surely be some broadband suppliers around to who that would be of interest.

$3 a share for the branding campaign it's experienced and the userbase. To an ADSL supplier, that's got to be considered a reasonable deal. And the investors would have all doubled their money at that price (I think they just got greedy).

I'm taking litigation out of the equation of course - assume there isn't any or it gets settled.

Bottom line for me personally. If I was an ISP looking to expand my broadband base, at $500m, I'd probably buy it, assuming I could raise the money.

But that's just my gut instinct - I admit no accountancy, market study or maths involved in that calculation whatsoever.

Time will tell. It's going to be a rough ride though, whatever happens. That much is for sure.

Posts: 111 · Vonage Forum Senior Joined: Jun 15, 2006 Posts: 111

You are correct that there was no math in that post. Vonage has about 1.5M customers. So $550 million, or $3 a share, is still $367/customer, not $5.

And how does this help an IP? If AOL bought Vonage, does that mean Comcast customers with Vonage would switch to AOL?

Also, we have no idea what type of golden parachute contracts management has. I really doubt anyone would want to hire a crook like Jeff Citron. But buy Vonage, get their crooked management free!

That means they must be paid off to get them to walk away from their employment contracts. There goes another 10 or 20 million.

Posts: 66 · Full Forum Member Joined: May 25, 2006 Posts: 66

You're right - I'm a couple of digits out there Wink

OK, let's say $50 a lead, that would value it at about $75m, less contingent liabillities and management team. OK, let's call it "squat" then Wink

Quote:

If AOL bought Vonage, does that mean Comcast customers with Vonage would switch to AOL?

Yes, it's a lead in to a potential broadband switching customer. Deal would have to be right of course, but it's still a lead.

That's where Vonage's value lies. If it's only worth $75m then so be it - it's Vonage's fault, they had a great opportunity I feel and totally blew it by trying to be a Ma Bell without the infrastructure.