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agreed drab
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HildBeft Posted:
You can recollect
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The devices are
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Hi these are most
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Post new topic   Reply to topic  Vonage® VoIP Forum - Vonage News, Reviews And Discussion » Vonage Stock
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DMattingly
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Joined: May 24, 2006
Posts: 6

PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2006 8:36 pm    Post subject: Word of Caution Reply with quote Back to top

In the prospectus it is stated that Vonage plans on paying no dividends, so all we can count on is stock value. The term 'dilution' comes to mind.

So we now have employees exercising options, which they deserve, but reference the number of 'above water' exercisable options in the prospectus? Ummmm...

Thanks for bringing that to my attention.

Best Regards,
Dave
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libbyloo
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Joined: Sep 03, 2005
Posts: 57

PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2006 8:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

For those of you who still decide to hold. I have some bad news for you. If you think VG didn't pan out as a short term quick gain, it is even worse as longer term investment. I simply do not understand why people can not see through this. Someone wanted to wait until the 30-day silence period over and see what happens. Let me tell you what will happen. Listen carefully, after 30 days, the insiders are allowed to sell their allotment. It will drive the stock further down. Key personnels typically get shares for free or for pennies on a dollar for their contributions to the company. You bet your house VG will go down even further.

I have had several debates on some of the unrealistic people here on the board. As the part of the nay sayers here, I even drew an editorial from the owner of the board who passionately declared he was all in. Redblurr declared he would sure score a 20 - 25% gain and he even drew credit on his house to buy his shares. Well, the rest is history..

There are a lot of big talkers on this board, but few have level-headed judgement of this "investment". I LOVE Vonage's service as many people here do. However, it is a horrible investment. Someone said not to buy Microsoft. I see just the opposite. I think Microsoft is way over sold and it holds great short term gain potential. Mark my words and see who is right.

I will state my position one more time. Vonage has no institutional support. As the matter of fact I would like to know which institution bought into the IPO if someone has that information. I will never do business with institutions that bought into Vonage's IPO. There are many, many reasons not to purchase Vonage's IPO. Let me just point out a low hang fruit for you - has anyone thought about what would happen to Vonage if Cable cos, the owners of high speed lines that Vonage depends on, drop their Voip price to $24.95????? You think about that one.

For those of your die hards, you only chance is to wait for someone to buy VG out for around $8.00 a share (big prediction, I know). Vonage's original plan is to find a buyer for this price, no one wanted them. IPO was the backup plan. I do see someone can snatch them up for $8.00 a share.

The sad part is that Venture Capital firms have recouped their years of investment in VG through this IPO. You are left to hold the bag.
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DMattingly
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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2006 10:50 pm    Post subject: Excelent Analysis Reply with quote Back to top

Libbyloo,

Excellent commentary and I concur on the value of the stock based on financials. The "selected" IPO firms did an excellent job in fixing the pricing to reflect what the max the market would tolerate and maximized their potential. Albeit at a short term gain for then they have lost my patronage forever.

With regards to your comment on Microsoft, the moving 21 day average is down from $27.30 to $25.00 over the past month with stock closing at $23.5 , MACD moving up slighting indicating positive volume movement, Stochastics indicating the stock is undersold or not moving, institutional investors pulling out of tech areas, I don't have a crystal ball but don't concur with your projections on MS but do on Vonage. Isn't that the way the stock market is ...... speculation?

I do believe Vonage was oversold and have put a stop limit order in to minimize my lose. i suggest all do. No harm , no foul.

Protect your investment capital.

Regards,
Dave
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gfoulks
Vonage Forum Master
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Joined: Jan 18, 2004
Posts: 243

PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2006 3:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

since we are still holding... we are investors and we do have a voice. Send your concerns to ir@vonage.com
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trillian
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Joined: May 25, 2006
Posts: 66

PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2006 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

That's sound advice libyloo. I'm not an investor but I have been following this IPO with some interest (and prediction).

To be completely frank, and I'm sorry to say this with all the investors listening, but I think $8 is too high - I suspect it will hit $5 and get bought out by an ISP or cable co at that price.

Vonages only real stock is it's membership. It's product has no intrinsic value (voice on the net is basically free now). What it offers a potential buyer is a bunch of people who might buy broadband or a cable connection from a new parent, with the voice element thrown in free as a value add. Even that's a gamble for any potential investor.

It's a shame as Vonage started with much promise, but ultimately the exit route was seriously mis-timed.
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von2man
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Joined: Jan 19, 2005
Posts: 26

PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2006 3:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

I've read some posts that say Vonage isn't offering anything proprietary and that Voip is free with other services. First off, how many free services port your phone number? Second, how many other free services send you emails of your calls and simulring other numbers? Third, how many other services send you a "box" and you plug your phone into it and it works for inbound and outbound calling?

I suppose there are many other things but Vonage is ten times better than Skype, Yahoo and whatever other "VOIP" services out there that are cheap or free.
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dronedaddy
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PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2006 4:09 pm    Post subject: have a point Reply with quote Back to top

just placed stop order @ 12.5 - no more bleeding... cause that is what's happening.

That said... Vonage has opportunity to blow up and really be something. For one - They should give webphone away for free to it's Vonage users. That would Increase it user base and then they could partner or offer that service for IM's to use (verizon is partnered with MSN). Thing is, they missed many opportunities, they are not behind the ball. They are getting run over. I'm not sure what grand event could take place that would grow there stock value up 30% - So I am not sure what holders think could possibly happen. Everyone just got paid inhouse... and we (the folks who did invest) were looking to make a profit on a risky stock.

I lost a 1K... did not have it to loss... but I took a bet and lost. Such is life.
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trillian
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PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2006 4:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Quote:
Vonage is ten times better than Skype


I agree.

Quote:
First off, how many free services port your phone number? Second, how many other free services send you emails of your calls and simulring other numbers? Third, how many other services send you a "box" and you plug your phone into it and it works for inbound and outbound calling?


They all will. Every single one of them. The competition hasn't even started yet.

The market value of Voip is all about public perception, and the public perception is that it's "free" - to any paying more than free, it seems like a rip-off. That's a really hard perception to fend off. Skype may be 1/10th of what Vonage is in terms of service level, but 90% of the public don't actually think like you do. That's why Skype is 50 times the size of Vonage.

The only people that can compete are those bundling in the triple-play space - that's basically cable co's and the larger ISP's (this is why the larger ISP's are all getting into video/TV delivery at the moment - they need to compete with cable, not VoIP).

But don't take my word for it - look top right of your page.

Quote:
I lost a 1K... did not have it to loss... but I took a bet and lost. Such is life.


That's a good attitude. Don't worry about it - no-one died. You'll make it up and some next time around.
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lukecadet
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Joined: May 23, 2006
Posts: 14

PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2006 8:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

von2man wrote:
I've read some posts that say Vonage isn't offering anything proprietary and that Voip is free with other services. First off, how many free services port your phone number? Second, how many other free services send you emails of your calls and simulring other numbers? Third, how many other services send you a "box" and you plug your phone into it and it works for inbound and outbound calling?

I suppose there are many other things but Vonage is ten times better than Skype, Yahoo and whatever other "VOIP" services out there that are cheap or free.


The answer is they are out there. Companies can match every single aspect of the Vonage service including price. Some of them are very big carriers. How long will Vonage last if they get in a bidding war with a company that has very deep pockets. Also what about the possiblility of no longer having network neutrality? What if Comcast decides to degrade the Vonage service while giving their service priority on the internet?

All of this adds up to a troubled future for Vonage. Only time will tell.
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von2man
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PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2006 8:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Vonage just bought some clout. They got a bank full of cash and they should participate in the lobby of our political system. As far as Comcast, can you imagine the lawsuit? If they're ever found stunting Vonage and letting iTunes downloads because Comcast offers a competitive product to Vonage and not iTunes? Really, all the baloney about Comcast has got to go. Vonage is no different a freerider than those other services that send sound or video. I don't know if Vonage has all the clout it needs to survive but it just made it to the NYSE.

I have no idea why Google is what it is. I can find what I need by using other search engines so how did Google (a search engine that's not a new concept) ever get the notoriety it has today? For the average American...Google does no more than Dogpile as far as I'm concerned. Vonage is a service that has to really compete with reliabity. Google just serves up crap most of the time.

Long live Vonage!
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