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Needham & Company Growth Conference, Day Four


Vonage In Print News

Needham & Company Growth Conference, Day Four

January 12, 2004

By Harry Newton

Today's Column

Needham & Company Growth Conference, Day Four (i.e. Friday).

+ Universal Display Corp. (PANL) researches OLED displays. OLED stands for organic light-emitting diode. It's a technology that's brighter and more cost-effective than current LCD -- liquid crystal display -- technology.

The organic chemicals in OLED displays emit their own light when electrically charged and don't rely on backlighting, which adds weight, cost and thickness to conventional (i.e. non-OLED) screens. OLED screens will be lighter, brighter, have a wider viewing angle, a better video rate, consume less power than today's displays and be cheaper to make.

They will also be thin, flexible, even paintable onto various surfaces, including and plastic and fabrics which you'll be able to fold. The flat panel display business is already $40 billion a year in sales. I like OLEDs, but I don't like this company.

It's a "technology licensing," "intellectual property" (IP) company. It doesn't make anything except patents and then it tries to extort money out of manufacturers. Its founders come from InterDigital Communications (IDCC), which I wrote negatively about last Thursday, and which is in a $150 million dispute with Nokia and Samsung.

One of our portfolio companies, Emagin (EMA), makes OLED micro-displays under license from Kodak (PANL's competitor). I love OLED technology. It's the future of displays. But it's a long, long-haul.

+ Dot Hill Systems Corporation (HILL) makes heavy duty, networked data storage devices -- clumps of hard disks sitting on your company's network which your people can find information on. I like the technology. I like what management is doing to fix the company. It's had a big run this year. Last week the stock cratered on rumors "there was a problem with Sun which sells its systems" (there isn't any problem) and "they're pulling out of the Needham conference" (clearly they didn't). I think there's perhaps a couple of dollars in the stock (now at $14.97) while it climbs back to last week's high of over $17. But after then, it will a long haul. This is another of those technology stocks whose economics (i.e. profits and sales) are coming back slower than its share price.

+ RF Micro Devices (RFMD) makes semiconductors for the wireless business. Nokia is their biggest customer. Nokia says it's more optimistic about wireless sales. which will be good RFMD. Unfortunately, RF Micro Devices is another of technology stocks which has had a strong run since April last year and is now overpriced.

I went to some other presentations but they weren't interesting. I promised myself I'd listen to the Needham's archived webcasts, but got busy with a charity event and playing tennis over the weekend. I hope, today.

Cepheid in Business Week. One of our portfolio stocks, Cepheid (CPHD) got a nice plug in this weekend's Business Week: "The U.S. Postal Service has signed up Cepheid to install 1,784 systems to detect anthrax at 284 mail-sorting facilities. The Postal Service will spend $75 million to $100 million annually for Cepheid's devices, which it developed with Northrop Grumman (NOC ). They test the air every hour for harmful particles. ... Installation will be finished by 2006, when Piros expects Cepheid to turn profitable. ... Other Cepheid products, including clinical diagnostics for Group B Streptococcus and an antibiotic-resistance test. ... Elemer Piros of Rodman & RenshawPiros says Cepheid may also be working on a test for animal feed to halt the spread of mad cow disease, using the same technology the Postal Service approved for bio hazards." Cepheid remains an interesting speculation.


XM and Sirius are overpriced: Barrons knocked both XM Satellite (XMSR) and Sirius Satellite (SIRI). Before that Fred Hickey, in his January newsletter "The High-Tech Strategist" had also knocked them. Barrons and Hickey say they're way overpriced, which they are. Good rule of "investing:" When the noise gets so loud and so negative, it's time to get out. Click here.

Mini Bubbles galore. Hickey lists recent bubbles -- China stocks, satellite radio stocks, Linux stocks, Voip stocks and Internet stocks. To those you could add telecom, gold and biotech (which I still, selectively, like.) Our job is to find the next bubble.

Vonage, here I come: Over the weekend, a reader called me on his Vonage Voip phone. The call was crystal clear. I called him back. The call was crystal clear. Out of curiosity I checked for long distance prices from non-VoIP carriers. My friend says he pays AT&T $25 a month for unlimited long distance. I couldn't find that offer on the web. I checked others, like Verizon. Nothing matches Vonage's prices, features and ease of understanding. Frankly, the whole long distance business makes me sick. They deliberately confuse everyone with incomprehensible "plans." One reader, who is about to join Vonage, wrote, "I had left Verizon for Kiss LD and just got a monthly bill for $166.47. Turns out their local charges are even higher than Verizon."

Credit card scam: This story is true. I checked it with Visa's fraud department. Never give any numbers to a telephone operator from Visa, MasterCard, American express, etc. They know your numbers. Why would they ask for them?

"My husband was called on Wednesday from "VISA" and I was called on Thursday from "MasterCard". It worked like this: Person calling says, this is and I'm calling from the Security and Fraud department at VISA. My Badge number is 12460. Your card has been flagged for an unusual purchase pattern, and I'm calling to verify. This would be on your VISA card issued by . Did you purchase an Anti-Telemarketing Device for $497.99 from a marketing company based in Arizona?

When you say "No". The caller continues with, "then we will be issuing a credit to your account. This is a company we have been watching and the charges range from $297 to $497, just under the $500 purchase pattern that flags most cards. Before your next statement, the credit will be sent to (gives you your address), is that correct?" You say "yes". Caller continues..."I will be starting a fraud investigation.

If you have any questions, you should call the 800 number listed on your card 1-800-VISA and ask for Security. You will need to refer to this Control "#". Then he gives you a 6 digit number. "Do you need me to read it again?" Caller then "needs to verify you are in possession of your card. Turn card over. There are 7 numbers; first 4 are your card number, the next 3 are the security numbers that verify you are in possession of the card. These are the numbers you use to make Internet purchases to prove you have the card. Read me the 3 numbers".

Then he says "That is correct."

I just needed to verify that the card has not been lost or stolen, and that you still have your card. Do you have any other questions? Don't hesitate to call back. After we were called on Wednesday, we called back within 20 minutes to ask a question. Are we glad we did! The REAL VISA security department told us it was a scam and in the last 15 minutes a new purchase of $497.99 WAS put on our card. We made a real fraud report and closed the VISA card and they are reissuing us a new number.

What the scam wants is the 3-digit PIN number. By the time you get your statement, you think the credit is coming, and then it's harder to actually file a fraud report. The real VISA officials reinforced that they will never ask for anything on the card that they already know. What makes this more remarkable is that on Thursday, I got a call from "Jason Richardson of MasterCard" with a word-for-word repeat of the VISA scam. This time I didn't let him finish. I hung up. We filed a police report, as instructed by VISA. The police said they are taking several of these reports daily, and to tell friends, relatives and coworkers."

A Third Monitor for your laptop? A Windows XP laptop will let you run two displays -- the internal screen and an external glass or LCD monitor. You can have your email on one screen, your stock quotes on the other. Or you can stretch one program over two monitors. I've always wanted four monitors. I can easily get with a desktop and a Matrox Parhelia video card. But a laptop?... Good news. Over the weekend I ordered VTBook, which I slide into my laptop PC Card slot. The $250 card will let me drive a third monitor.



 
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†AK and HI residents pay $29.95 shipping. ††Limited time offer. Valid for residents of the United States (&DC), 18 years or older, who open new accounts. Offer good while supplies last and only on new account activations. One kit per account/household. Offer cannot be combined with any other discounts, promotions or plans and is not applicable to past purchases. Good while supplies last. Allow up to 2 weeks for shipping. Other restrictions may apply.

1Unlimited calling and other services for all residential plans are based on normal residential, personal, non-commercial use. A combination of factors is used to determine abnormal use, including but not limited to: the number of unique numbers called, calls forwarded, minutes used and other factors. Subject to our Reasonable Use Policy and Terms of Service.

2Shipping and activation fees waived with 1-year agreement. An Early Termination Fee (with periodic pro-rated reductions) applies if service is terminated before the end of the first 12 months. Additional restrictions may apply. See Terms of Service for details.

HIGH SPEED INTERNET REQUIRED. †VALID FOR NEW LINES ONLY. RATES EXCLUDE INTERNET SERVICE, SURCHARGES, FEES AND TAXES. DEVICE MAY BE REFURBISHED. If you subscribe to plans with monthly minutes allotments, all call minutes placed from both from your home and registered ExtensionsTM phones will count toward your monthly minutes allotment. ExtensionsTM calls made from mobiles use airtime and may incur surcharges, depending on your mobile plan. Alarms, TTY and other systems may not be compatible. Vonage 911 service operates differently than traditional 911. See www.vonage.com/911 for details.

** Certain call types excluded.

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