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In The Forum:
Hard Wiring - Installation
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Vonage Hits 1 mil. VoIP Customers in North America


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September 8, 2005

By Julian Watson

Global Insight Perspective

Significance - Vonage has seen success in getting broadband subscribers to subscribe to its Voip service.

Implications - The North American Voip market is crowded, but prices have remained stable over the past six months.

Outlook - Comcast's entry will test both the Baby Bells and Vonage.

Vonage Leading the Voip Pack:

* Vonage is the largest provider of broadband telephony in North America. It markets Voip as a landline replacement service to residential and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) via third-party broadband (predominantly xDSL and cable) connections.
* Despite some well-documented problems with E911 provisioning, Vonage has reported robust subscriber growth, from over 600,000 Voip lines in May 2005 to over 1 million in early September 2005.
* While Voip is competing with cable operators, the latter are primarily using Voip as a tool to retain or increase average spending per customer. While Vonage is seeking to differentiate itself in an increasingly crowded Voip market via moves into the wireless space, as well as adding new functionality, fixed voice over broadband remains its core revenue stream.

Voip Prices Remain Stable

* As stated above, the North American Voip market has a large number of players chasing a relatively small, addressable market (households and SMEs subscribing to broadband).
* Despite the large number of players in the market, basic residential Voip prices have remained stable over the past six months (between 23/24 March and 8 September 2005). Over this period, only Verizon cut its prices for the first six months of a subscription.
* The lack of price cuts reflects the importance of the telecoms business to cable operators and hence their unwillingness to discount prices, but also fixed incumbents' reluctance to cannibalise their traditional fixed-line voice business by engaging in a destructive price war.

Outlook and Implications

* Landline Erosion Continues: According to Global Insight estimates, the US's four largest incumbent local exchange providers lost a total of 7 million access lines in the year to 30 June 2005. While this is due to a number of factors, including users dropping second lines when they buy xDSL and, at the lower end of the market, users dropping landlines for mobiles, VoIP, particularly in its cable and virtual (e.g. Vonage) varieties, is also leading to a reduction in landlines. The wider availability of naked DSL should also lead to greater Voip adoption at the expense of landline numbers.

* Comcast to Come: Comcast, the US's biggest cable operator, is deploying Voip on a wide-scale basis, which will pose a major threat to the Baby Bells. Indeed, the threat posed by Comcast is increasing the pressure on the likes of SBC and Verizon to bring their video services to the market. Moreover, Comcast's moves will add pressure on Vonage to differentiate its offering and seek further expansion opportunities overseas.



 
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†AK and HI residents pay $29.95 shipping. ††Limited time offer. Valid for residents of the United States (&DC), 18 years or older, who open new accounts. Offer good while supplies last and only on new account activations. One kit per account/household. Offer cannot be combined with any other discounts, promotions or plans and is not applicable to past purchases. Good while supplies last. Allow up to 2 weeks for shipping. Other restrictions may apply.

1Unlimited calling and other services for all residential plans are based on normal residential, personal, non-commercial use. A combination of factors is used to determine abnormal use, including but not limited to: the number of unique numbers called, calls forwarded, minutes used and other factors. Subject to our Reasonable Use Policy and Terms of Service.

2Shipping and activation fees waived with 1-year agreement. An Early Termination Fee (with periodic pro-rated reductions) applies if service is terminated before the end of the first 12 months. Additional restrictions may apply. See Terms of Service for details.

HIGH SPEED INTERNET REQUIRED. †VALID FOR NEW LINES ONLY. RATES EXCLUDE INTERNET SERVICE, SURCHARGES, FEES AND TAXES. DEVICE MAY BE REFURBISHED. If you subscribe to plans with monthly minutes allotments, all call minutes placed from both from your home and registered ExtensionsTM phones will count toward your monthly minutes allotment. ExtensionsTM calls made from mobiles use airtime and may incur surcharges, depending on your mobile plan. Alarms, TTY and other systems may not be compatible. Vonage 911 service operates differently than traditional 911. See www.vonage.com/911 for details.

** Certain call types excluded.

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