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On Mar 28, 2017 at 12:42:33

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Vonage If the value of the customer list is not linear to the number of customers it is obvious



If the value of the customer list is not linear to the number of customers it is obvious why a takeover of Vonage would be more valuable than a takeover of smaller Voip players at the same $/head.

Frankly when considering the takeover possibility I am factoring in the fact that Vonage may be in a death spiral and that the cost of acquiring Vonage's customers will be minimal compared with picking them up off the street. This also assumes that any legal issues with the IPO are resolved.

This means that Vonage has to survive several years, without turning the corner on profitability and making the changes necessary to solidify their position as a permanent player in worldwide telecom.

So;

Option 1: Vonage rapid death spiral results in bankruptcy. Vonage pieces picked up out of bankruptcy by telecom player (who?).

Option 2: Vonage slow painful death with continued customer base growth results in buyout at good $/customer price point.

Option 3: Vonage turns the corner and starts making a profit. Future buyout is a possibility but really can't be considered at this time.

Option 4: Vonage flames out and nobody picks up the pieces. Customers abandon other non-traditional telecommunication providers with fear of being subject to the same chaos from a Vonage flame out (loss of service, loss of number) etc.

I submit that for self preservation the industry (specifically the cable companies) will not allow number 4 and that option 2 is more likely.

Do I see buyout as a good thing for investors? No. Anyone investing in Vonage had better think that option 3 is the most likely event and be in it for the long haul. (Isn't this exactly what the prospectus said?)

-

So here is a scenario;

Vonage share price continues to fall. At some point the $/customer will approach the amount that Comcast spends to acquire new Digital Voice customers. Comcast creats a subsidiary to buy Vonage then announces that it will discontinue service in Comcast areas (area codes?) offering an easy transition to Digital Voice and picking up HSI subscribers along the way.

It offers to sell TWC customers in their region and possibly something similar in Canada.

It then strips Vonage down and uses it as a company to provide Voip service to nomadic users (non-E911 service, no local numbers? skypish? all calling plans are limited and/or metered) and wholesale virtual numbers to the cable companies. It uses Vonage's existing agreements to lower call costs into Europe and Latin America.

It also can use the IP Vonage recently acquired to step on the smaller independent players.



Read The Full Thread:

Vonage buyout: ain''t gonna happen


A takeover simply is not going to happen. Here are 5 reasons why: 1. Cost Right
Cost TiVo is probably not the best example to use here, no TiVo wasn't bought
On cost per customer, we actually don't know, because in a rather stunning lack
They're are so many inaccuracies in what Big Time states that I'm not even going
No offense, but this posts shows a massive level of ignorance. Skype was bought
Vonage's pricing was similar to Skype with respect to revenues. You seem
Skype has a huge customer base that is only beginning to be tapped. Vonage has a
Time Warner is giving away AOL services to anybody that has broadband. Interesting
How does Vonage have "broadband customers?" Because they sell a service to such
All of Vonage's customers have broadband. They have also trusted Vonage with

scerruti posted "If the value of the customer list is not linear to the number of customers it is obvious" on 08/09/2006

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†AK and HI residents pay $29.95 shipping. ††Limited time offer. Valid for residents of the United States (&DC), 18 years or older, who open new accounts. Offer good while supplies last and only on new account activations. One kit per account/household. Offer cannot be combined with any other discounts, promotions or plans and is not applicable to past purchases. Good while supplies last. Allow up to 2 weeks for shipping. Other restrictions may apply.

1Unlimited calling and other services for all residential plans are based on normal residential, personal, non-commercial use. A combination of factors is used to determine abnormal use, including but not limited to: the number of unique numbers called, calls forwarded, minutes used and other factors. Subject to our Reasonable Use Policy and Terms of Service.

2Shipping and activation fees waived with 1-year agreement. An Early Termination Fee (with periodic pro-rated reductions) applies if service is terminated before the end of the first 12 months. Additional restrictions may apply. See Terms of Service for details.

HIGH SPEED INTERNET REQUIRED. †VALID FOR NEW LINES ONLY. RATES EXCLUDE INTERNET SERVICE, SURCHARGES, FEES AND TAXES. DEVICE MAY BE REFURBISHED. If you subscribe to plans with monthly minutes allotments, all call minutes placed from both from your home and registered ExtensionsTM phones will count toward your monthly minutes allotment. ExtensionsTM calls made from mobiles use airtime and may incur surcharges, depending on your mobile plan. Alarms, TTY and other systems may not be compatible. Vonage 911 service operates differently than traditional 911. See www.vonage.com/911 for details.

** Certain call types excluded.

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