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Vonage IMHO, I believe that the Vonage IPO will be greater than 25% from the offering price



IMHO, I believe that the Vonage IPO will be greater than 25% from the offering price at the open and here?s why.

I?ve researched all the IPOs that have gone public this year; Jan 1 thru May 12. Here are some stats:

There have been a total of 62 IPOs this year.
Number of IPOs that have opened higher than the offering price: 58
Number of IPOs that have closed higher than the offering price: 47
Number of IPOs that have a current price higher than the offering price: 40
Number of IPOs that have gained greater than 10% at the opening price: 24

Average gain of all IPOs from the opening price: 10.53%
Average gain of all IPOs from the high price: 15.83%
Average gain of all IPOs from the closing price: 10.41%
Average gain of all IPOs from the current price: 18.05%

Here are the top 5 IPO price gainers at the open:
CMG 105% (1/26/06)
CROX 43% (2/8/06)
PAC 36% (2/27/06)
TWPG 32% (2/2/06)
BWTR 31% (5/12/06)

Here are the top 5 IPO price gainers at the high:
CMG 119% (1/26/06)
EICU 62% (4/5/06)
CROX 55% (2/8/06)
BWTR 42% (5/12/06)
GNET 40% (3/24/06)

Here are the top 5 IPO price losers at the open:
VNDA -4.5% (4/12/06)
RSO -3.33% (2/7/06)
MHGC -1.75% (2/14/06)
BMTI -0.62% (5/12/06)
DMGI 0% (2/2/06)

So, what does this mean? It means that there is a good chance that Vonage will open higher and pop after opening. This is no guarantee but the Vonage IPO has been described in the following ways: Much Anticipated, Eagerly Awaited, Hot. Also, CNBC will probably have heavy coverage of this IPO. I think this will add excitement and buzz to the IPO.

I currently have an offer for 2000 shares. If the opening price is higher than the offering price then my plan is to sell half at the open, then sell into any spike in price. I plan to sell 90% of my holdings by the close and let 10% ride.

If it opens lower than the offering price or at a minimal gain, I will sell half at the open and then see if the price spikes and sell ALL of the shares into any rally. A lower open from the offering price is a bad sign.

If I get less shares than my offer, say 200 or 500, then I will watch the price closely and then sell all of the shares into any spike.

As for Vonage the company, my long term view is negative. They are not making a profit and there will be too much competition; Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, AOL and of course the phone and cable companies. It?s too easy for companies to offer Voip. There are no barriers to entry. Also, Voip prices will plummet when more companies enter the fray. Good for customers, bad for existing companies (i.e. Vonage)

BTW, I compiled the above stats using www.ipohome.com and Yahoo?s historical stock prices.

jw



Read The Full Thread:


Post your questions, opinions, etc. on the Vonage IPO. My first questions... Do
Looks like UBS fees are less than the other two when you want to transfer your shares.
Can someone from Vonage please confirm this: is it not enough to be a permanent
It is black and white to me: you must be a U.S. citizen.
Okay - showing my obvious lack of financial expertise but how many people have
I am in, all the way! :)
I'm seriously considering buying at least 100 shares. But, I have a lot of questions
I think we should get 1800 forum members to donate one dollar apiece, and buy into
As with any stock there are those who invest simply to turn a quick profit (ala day
http://blogs.zdnet.com/ip-telephony/?p=1078

jdubya posted "IMHO, I believe that the Vonage IPO will be greater than 25% from the offering price" on 05/15/2006

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